Iran Presidential Election and Predictability

1) Friday was a very surprising day for us. Iran’s presidential election got into a very unbelievable result (read + + +). The reformist candidate, Mostafa Moin -who was believed to get many votes- was humbled by fifth-place finish. On the other hand, Mahmoud Ahmadinejah –a fundamentalist mayor of Tehran- got many votes and stood in the second place. He and Rafsanjani will continue their fight next week in the second round of election.
I do not intend to analyze the situation or even inform you about the dark ages we may face if this Ahmadinejad become our president. Instead, I want to concentrate on the predictability of such elections.
2) No one in blogosphere predicted this situation. They guessed that Moin would get the first or second place. But it did not happen and all of us are in a great shock. I hypothesize the following fact:

Internet community does not reflect what is going on the society. Internet polls may have an order of magnitude difference with reality. I guess this becomes truer (in the Fuzzy sense?!) whenever the society is pre-modern or under-development.

Let me discuss it in the notion of statistical learning theory: Consider the whole society as a set A0. Those people who use Internet considerably and discuss about their opinion in that media make a subset of A0, naming it A1. If we consider the general belief as X, we can define probability measure P0 over set A0 that indicates the probability of selecting each instances of X. The same is true for A1 and P1. I hypothesize that one may not estimate E[f(X)] over P0 by making i.i.d. samples from A1 by probability measure P1. Well … a very evident fact?! Yeap! OK!
Anyway, be careful to assess the commonsense using the Internet media.

3) A few days ago, I thought about making something like Fuzzy Cognitive Map to model the society and predict its behavior. I am not that aware of the society modelling literature, but it might be interesting subject to work on. One may talk about the model’s predictability and the effect of model’s error to the prediction. Is the society –that must be modeled- chaotic or stable to a fixed point? Or in other words, can we make a model that even if it has some errors predicts well?